52%

Win Probability

+8.0

Projected Margin

CI: [-12.0 to +28.0]

Boom Potential

Chargers D/ST, Marvin Harrison Jr.

Bust Risk

Juwan Johnson (56%), Jameson Williams (43%), Bucky Irving (48%), Omarion Hampton (58%)

Start/Sit Decisions

: Start over

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Jacoby Brissett	CIN	20.3	22.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
RB	Omarion Hampton	HOU	14.9	18.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
RB	Bucky Irving	MIA	14.7	15.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	CAR	21.8	24.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	CIN	12.9	16.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	TEN	10.2	11.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jameson Williams	MIN	13.4	12.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	CAR	8.4	10.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
D/ST	Chargers D/ST	HOU	6.3	7.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Championship week optimization - maximize ceiling for Week 17

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)

DROP: Rams D/ST (backup, not needed)

Provides TE insurance for Juwan Johnson. NE @ NYJ has 42.5 total. Henry is steady floor option if Johnson disappoints.

#2 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)

DROP: Jayden Reed (GB QB uncertainty)

LAC WR1 with Herbert. Could be FLEX alternative to Jameson Williams if MIN matchup scares you.

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)

DROP: Devin Singletary

With DK Metcalf suspended, Shaheed becomes SEA WR2. Elite matchup @ CAR. Stack with JSN?

⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, J.K. Dobbins, Garrett Wilson

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

Matchup Status (Week 17)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

Games Pending (17)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Jacoby Brissett	QB	QB	20.3	22.0
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	14.7	15.0
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	14.9	18.0
Jameson Williams	WR	WR	13.4	12.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	21.8	24.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	10.2	11.0
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	RB/WR/TE	12.9	16.0
Jason Myers	K	K	8.4	10.0
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	6.3	7.0
Hunter Henry (bench)	TE	BE	10.7	9.0
Isiah Pacheco (bench)	RB	BE	8.9	10.0
Quentin Johnston (bench)	WR	BE	8.3	10.0
Rashid Shaheed (bench)	WR	BE	9.4	12.0
Sam Darnold (bench)	QB	BE	15.9	16.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench)	WR	BE	12.3	14.0
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	9.9	10.0
Rashee Rice (bench)	WR	IR	13.7	---

0.0 Actual

135.0 LLM Total

122.9 ESPN Total

Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins

Opponent Games Pending (16)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Dak Prescott	QB	QB	20.5	18.0
De'Von Achane	RB	RB	22.3	20.0
James Cook III	RB	RB	17.2	16.0
Deebo Samuel	WR	WR	11.9	11.0
Jaylen Waddle	WR	WR	13.2	14.0
Tyler Warren	TE	TE	12.1	12.0
DeVonta Smith	WR	RB/WR/TE	12.4	12.0
Cairo Santos	K	K	8.4	8.0
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	8.9	8.0
Buccaneers D/ST (bench)	D/ST	BE	5.7	---
Chase McLaughlin (bench)	K	BE	8.0	---
Chimere Dike (bench)	WR	BE	10.7	---
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench)	RB	BE	10.7	---
Dallas Goedert (bench)	TE	BE	10.8	---
Taysom Hill (bench)	TE	BE	10.4	---
Trevor Lawrence (bench)	QB	BE	19.4	---

0.0 Opp Actual

119.0 Opp LLM Total

127.0 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: +16.0 pts

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical). XGB: 19.4% boom (this week - unreliable). CIN is #5 easiest QB matchup (19.33 PPG). 52.5 game total is HIGHEST on slate. Expert consensus: 'Don't pull plug on Jacoby' after Week 16 dud. Mode: BOOM (high-scoring shootout expected). Projection: 22.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-28).

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	13.9	16.0	20.6	+6.7
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Sam Darnold (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM, 37% MODERATE (historical). XGB: N/A. CAR is favorable matchup. Mode: MODERATE (backup QB, not starting). Projection: 16.0 pts. BENCH.

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	15.2	-	11.3	-3.8
14	ATL	14.3	-	22.3	+8.0
13	MIN	15.2	-	3.1	-12.1
12	TEN	15.2	-	17.7	+2.5
11	LAR	15.0	-	4.3	-10.8
10	ARI	16.6	-	4.9	-11.7
9	WSH	18.2	-	27.2	+8.9
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	14.9	-	8.6	-6.3
6	JAX	15.3	-	20.0	+4.7
5	TB	13.2	-	27.6	+14.4
4	ARI	13.0	-	16.1	+3.1
3	NO	14.1	-	16.7	+2.7
2	PIT	12.8	-	15.8	+3.0
1	SF	15.3	-	5.4	-9.9

Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM, 59% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (this week). MIA is average RB matchup. 45.5 game total solid. Concern: Bowles wants 'more Rachaad White carries' per Reddit. Mode: MODERATE (volume concern caps upside). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-20).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	ATL	15.2	14.0	8.1	-7.1
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM, 61% MODERATE (historical). Listed as 'RISER' on Reddit Week 17. TEN offense limited. Mode: MODERATE (committee back with limited ceiling). Projection: 10.0 pts (MODERATE range 6-16). BENCH.

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 8.7% boom, 58.8% bust (XGB poorly calibrated - ignore). CIN is #1 EASIEST RB MATCHUP IN NFL (32.01 PPG). Hampton 'feeling best he has felt' post-injury per Reddit. 52.5 game total SMASH. Mode: BOOM (elite matchup overrides XGB). Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 16-30).

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	11.7	10.0	7.5	-4.2
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 3% BOOM, 27% MODERATE, 70% BUST (historical - limited sample post-injury). XGB: 59.9% bust. PIT tough run defense. Mode: MODERATE (still getting reintegrated). Projection: 10.0 pts. BENCH.

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 24.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11.4% boom (model under-predicts booms). DK Metcalf SUSPENDED - JSN becomes clear WR1 with massive target share increase. SEA -7 favorites, should dominate CAR. Mode: BOOM (Metcalf absence is game-changer). Projection: 24.0 pts (within BOOM range 22-35).

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	20.6	22.0	18.3	-2.3
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM, 37% MODERATE, 49% BUST (historical - rookie volatility). XGB: 16.9% boom. CIN #27 vs WR (tough). Behind MHJ for targets. Mode: MODERATE (upside limited as WR2 in tough matchup). Projection: 14.0 pts (mid MODERATE range 9-21). BENCH candidate.

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	NO	13.2	11.0	4.5	-8.7
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 42.1% boom (rare high boom signal). CIN #27 vs WR (difficult). BUT 52.5 game total creates volume. Heel healthy, full practice. Mode: MODERATE (tough WR matchup tempers boom). Projection: 16.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-20).

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: Rashee Rice (KC) remains in concussion protocol, did not practice Tuesday. "Long shot to clear protocol" per HC Andy Reid. Unlikely to play Week 17 vs DEN. Source: [Draft Sharks](https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy-football-news/81284/rashee-rice-unlikely-to-play-week-17). Mode: BUST (injured). Projection: 0.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.3% boom, 43.4% moderate. MIN is #32 TOUGHEST WR matchup in NFL (15.22 PPG). DET still favored by 7.5 pts. Mode: MODERATE (elite defense caps ceiling but DET offense still productive). Projection: 12.0 pts (lower end MODERATE range 6-22).

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAR	13.9	18.0	26.4	+12.5
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

3-game streak of beating projections
Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Rashid Shaheed (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM, 43% MODERATE. DK Metcalf SUSPENDED - Shaheed becomes SEA WR2. Elite matchup @ CAR. Stack with JSN. Mode: MODERATE (upside play). Projection: 12.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	8.7	-	12.1	+3.4
14	ATL	8.0	-	16.7	+8.7
13	MIN	7.9	-	2.6	-5.3
12	TEN	7.8	-	0.5	-7.3
11	LAR	9.6	-	4.9	-4.7
10	ARI	10.4	-	3.3	-7.1
9	WSH	10.8	-	11.8	+1.0
8	BYE	12.2	-	14.5	+2.3
7	HOU	11.3	-	8.0	-3.3
6	JAX	10.0	-	6.8	-3.2
5	TB	9.3	-	21.4	+12.1
4	ARI	9.7	-	9.2	-0.5
3	NO	10.1	-	8.2	-1.9
2	PIT	11.3	-	15.2	+3.9
1	SF	10.6	-	9.3	-1.3

Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

Quentin Johnston (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM, 53% MODERATE. LAC WR1 with Herbert. HOU average matchup. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
14	PHI	8.7	-	2.8	-5.9
13	LV	10.0	-	11.3	+1.3
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	12.6	-	0.0	-12.6
10	PIT	11.7	-	9.2	-2.5
9	TEN	12.3	-	15.3	+3.0
8	MIN	13.5	-	0.0	-13.5
7	IND	14.9	-	11.0	-3.9
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	17.5	-	6.9	-10.6
4	NYG	13.8	-	23.8	+10.0
3	DEN	12.7	-	14.9	+2.2
2	LV	11.5	-	15.9	+4.4
1	KC	6.4	-	24.9	+18.5

Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM, 45% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17.9% boom, 56.6% bust (XGB over-predicts bust). MIA is #2 EASIEST TE MATCHUP (17.58 PPG). TB @ MIA 45.5 total. Mode: MODERATE (great matchup but TE variance high). Projection: 11.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-14).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	CAR	9.7	10.0	7.0	-2.7
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs NYJ)

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM, 43% MODERATE, 45% BUST. NE @ NYJ has 42.5 total. Solid TE2/insurance option. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	BUF	10.3	5.0	2.8	-7.5
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs SEA

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 14.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 14% BOOM, 37% MODERATE, 49% BUST (historical - rookie volatility). XGB: 16.9% boom. CIN #27 vs WR (tough). Behind MHJ for targets. Mode: MODERATE (upside limited as WR2 in tough matchup). Projection: 14.0 pts (mid MODERATE range 9-21). BENCH candidate.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	NO	13.2	11.0	4.5	-8.7
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: Rashee Rice (KC) remains in concussion protocol, did not practice Tuesday. "Long shot to clear protocol" per HC Andy Reid. Unlikely to play Week 17 vs DEN. Source: [Draft Sharks](https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy-football-news/81284/rashee-rice-unlikely-to-play-week-17). Mode: BUST (injured). Projection: 0.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs NO

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%

Notes: MC: 14% BOOM, 61% MODERATE (historical). Listed as 'RISER' on Reddit Week 17. TEN offense limited. Mode: MODERATE (committee back with limited ceiling). Projection: 10.0 pts (MODERATE range 6-16). BENCH.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 3% BOOM, 27% MODERATE, 70% BUST (historical - limited sample post-injury). XGB: 59.9% bust. PIT tough run defense. Mode: MODERATE (still getting reintegrated). Projection: 10.0 pts. BENCH.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Sam Darnold (QB) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 25% BOOM, 37% MODERATE (historical). XGB: N/A. CAR is favorable matchup. Mode: MODERATE (backup QB, not starting). Projection: 16.0 pts. BENCH.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	15.2	-	11.3	-3.8
14	ATL	14.3	-	22.3	+8.0
13	MIN	15.2	-	3.1	-12.1
12	TEN	15.2	-	17.7	+2.5
11	LAR	15.0	-	4.3	-10.8
10	ARI	16.6	-	4.9	-11.7
9	WSH	18.2	-	27.2	+8.9
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	14.9	-	8.6	-6.3
6	JAX	15.3	-	20.0	+4.7
5	TB	13.2	-	27.6	+14.4
4	ARI	13.0	-	16.1	+3.1
3	NO	14.1	-	16.7	+2.7
2	PIT	12.8	-	15.8	+3.0
1	SF	15.3	-	5.4	-9.9

Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs NYJ

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 9.0

Notes: MC: 11% BOOM, 43% MODERATE, 45% BUST. NE @ NYJ has 42.5 total. Solid TE2/insurance option. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	BUF	10.3	5.0	2.8	-7.5
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Rashid Shaheed (WR) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 12.0

Notes: MC: 30% BOOM, 43% MODERATE. DK Metcalf SUSPENDED - Shaheed becomes SEA WR2. Elite matchup @ CAR. Stack with JSN. Mode: MODERATE (upside play). Projection: 12.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	8.7	-	12.1	+3.4
14	ATL	8.0	-	16.7	+8.7
13	MIN	7.9	-	2.6	-5.3
12	TEN	7.8	-	0.5	-7.3
11	LAR	9.6	-	4.9	-4.7
10	ARI	10.4	-	3.3	-7.1
9	WSH	10.8	-	11.8	+1.0
8	BYE	12.2	-	14.5	+2.3
7	HOU	11.3	-	8.0	-3.3
6	JAX	10.0	-	6.8	-3.2
5	TB	9.3	-	21.4	+12.1
4	ARI	9.7	-	9.2	-0.5
3	NO	10.1	-	8.2	-1.9
2	PIT	11.3	-	15.2	+3.9
1	SF	10.6	-	9.3	-1.3

Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

Quentin Johnston (WR) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 10.0

Notes: MC: 18% BOOM, 53% MODERATE. LAC WR1 with Herbert. HOU average matchup. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
14	PHI	8.7	-	2.8	-5.9
13	LV	10.0	-	11.3	+1.3
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	12.6	-	0.0	-12.6
10	PIT	11.7	-	9.2	-2.5
9	TEN	12.3	-	15.3	+3.0
8	MIN	13.5	-	0.0	-13.5
7	IND	14.9	-	11.0	-3.9
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	17.5	-	6.9	-10.6
4	NYG	13.8	-	23.8	+10.0
3	DEN	12.7	-	14.9	+2.2
2	LV	11.5	-	15.9	+4.4
1	KC	6.4	-	24.9	+18.5

Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability

Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability

Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability

Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
James Cook III	RB	BUF	16.1	16.0	MODERATE	57%	31%	12%	HIGH
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	18.6	18.0	MODERATE	51%	34%	15%	HIGH
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	12.1	14.0	MODERATE	49%	36%	15%	HIGH
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	10.1	12.0	MODERATE	41%	40%	19%	HIGH
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	DEN	9.1	8.0	MODERATE	29%	45%	26%	MEDIUM
Deebo Samuel	WR	WSH	11.8	11.0	MODERATE	27%	52%	22%	MEDIUM
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	18.7	20.0	MODERATE	13%	64%	23%	LOW
Cairo Santos	K	CHI	9.0	8.0	MODERATE	13%	28%	59%	LOW
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	13.1	12.0	MODERATE	9%	48%	43%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

⚠️ FLEX Replacement Analysis:
• De'Von Achane (RB) has 0.0 projection - likely OUT
• James Cook III (RB) has 0.0 projection - likely OUT
• DeVonta Smith (WR) has 0.0 projection - likely OUT
• Jaylen Waddle (WR) has 0.0 projection - likely OUT
• Deebo Samuel (WR) has 0.0 projection - likely OUT
• Tyler Warren (TE) has 0.0 projection - likely OUT
IMPORTANT: FLEX slot accepts RB/WR/TE. Opponent can replace with ANY of these positions from bench or waivers. Best FA options: Hunter Henry TE (10.7), Cooper Kupp WR (9.5), Rashid Shaheed WR (9.5).

James Cook III [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)

Dak Prescott [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)

Jaylen Waddle [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)

Tyler Warren [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)

Broncos D/ST [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)

Deebo Samuel [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)

De'Von Achane [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)

Cairo Santos [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)

DeVonta Smith [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

Championship week optimization - maximize ceiling for Week 17

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)

vs @ NYJ (Good - NYJ vulnerable)

ESPN: 10.7 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Rams D/ST (backup, not needed)

Provides TE insurance for Juwan Johnson. NE @ NYJ has 42.5 total. Henry is steady floor option if Johnson disappoints.

Week 17: Championship insurance play

#2 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)

vs @ HOU (Average)

ESPN: 8.3 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Jayden Reed (GB QB uncertainty)

LAC WR1 with Herbert. Could be FLEX alternative to Jameson Williams if MIN matchup scares you.

Week 17: Boom potential in competitive game

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)

vs @ CAR (Elite - CAR bad defense)

ESPN: 9.4 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Devin Singletary

With DK Metcalf suspended, Shaheed becomes SEA WR2. Elite matchup @ CAR. Stack with JSN?

Week 17: Metcalf suspension creates opportunity

⚠️ Players to Avoid

Keenan Allen (WR)

69% bust probability, COLD trend (7.0 rolling avg)

J.K. Dobbins (RB)

47% bust, RJ Harvey emerging

Garrett Wilson (WR)

ON IR - not playing

📋 Quick Summary

ADD Hunter Henry, DROP Rams D/ST - TE insurance, don't need 2 D/STs
OPTIONAL: ADD Rashid Shaheed, DROP Devin Singletary - Metcalf absence upside
HOLD current lineup if comfortable with Jameson Williams vs MIN

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (5): Sam Darnold (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts))

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%47%

Bust%20%

EV12.2

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)

DROP Rashid Shaheed WR

Boom%0%

Bust%0%

EV0.0

ADD Jayden Daniels QB,

Boom%34%

Bust%30%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

DROP Quentin Johnston WR

Boom%0%

Bust%0%

EV0.0

ADD Jordan Love QB,

Boom%27%

Bust%21%

EV16.5

BUST: 26% (2-14) MODERATE: 53% (9-24) BOOM: 21% (18-36)

DROP Hunter Henry TE

Boom%0%

Bust%0%

EV0.0

ADD Evan Engram TE,

Boom%27%

Bust%24%

EV8.0

BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)

DROP Hunter Henry TE

Boom%0%

Bust%0%

EV0.0

ADD Bears D/ST D/ST,

Boom%20%

Bust%30%

EV8.4

BUST: 32% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 25% (9-24)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.2	47%	20%	0.0%
Jayden Daniels	QB	0.0	34%	30%	0.0%
Jordan Love	QB	16.5	27%	21%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	8.0	27%	24%	0.0%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	8.4	20%	30%	0.0%
Matt Prater	K	7.9	19%	54%	0.0%
Cooper Kupp	WR	10.0	18%	48%	0.0%
Devin Neal	RB	9.7	18%	45%	0.0%
Giants D/ST	D/ST	6.7	18%	46%	0.0%
Harrison Mevis	K	9.0	16%	48%	0.0%
Dolphins D/ST	D/ST	8.3	15%	55%	0.0%
Quentin Johnston	WR	11.9	15%	39%	0.0%
Garrett Wilson	WR	14.8	15%	48%	0.0%
49ers D/ST	D/ST	8.1	14%	51%	0.0%
Rashid Shaheed	WR	10.3	14%	53%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Jayden Daniels	0.0	OUT:100%	34%	30%
Jordan Love	16.5	BUST:26%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:21%	27%	21%
Kyler Murray	16.7	BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26%	11%	54%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.2	BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14%	47%	20%
Devin Neal	9.7	BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19%	18%	45%
Trey Benson	8.6	BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24%	12%	57%
Quinshon Judkins	11.9	BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32%	9%	64%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	9.4	BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12%	8%	61%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Cooper Kupp	10.0	BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12%	18%	48%
Quentin Johnston	11.9	BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18%	15%	39%
Garrett Wilson	14.8	BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22%	15%	48%
Rashid Shaheed	10.3	BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30%	14%	53%
Keenan Allen	11.7	BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9%	9%	56%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Evan Engram	8.0	BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20%	27%	24%
Hunter Henry	9.7	BUST:45%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:12%	8%	62%
Oronde Gadsden	13.7	BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50%	0%	0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Matt Prater	7.9	19%	54%
Harrison Mevis	9.0	16%	48%
Evan McPherson	9.6	9%	60%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Bears D/ST	8.4	20%	30%
Giants D/ST	6.7	18%	46%
Dolphins D/ST	8.3	15%	55%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-24 13:10

Matchup Summary

52.0%

Win Probability

+8.0

Expected Margin

135.0

My Team (LLM Proj)

119.0

Opponent (Proj)

30.9

Margin Std Dev

120.0

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -38.1 pts | Median: +1.9 pts | Ceiling: +40.7 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jacoby Brissett	QB	MED	22.0	4.3-27.9	↑15+: 65% \| ↓5-: 12%
Bucky Irving	RB	HIGH	15.0	5.1-23.6	↑15+: 40% \| ↓5-: 10%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	18.0	3.6-24.1	↑15+: 33% \| ↓5-: 18%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	24.0	6.4-30.2	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 4%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HIGH	16.0	3.7-21.4	↑15+: 31% \| ↓5-: 17%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	12.0	4.1-26.3	↑15+: 51% \| ↓5-: 14%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	11.0	3.0-16.6	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 22%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	7.0	1.0-18.1	↑15+: 20% \| ↓5-: 27%
Jason Myers	K	MED	10.0	5.5-19.0	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 7%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Sam Darnold	QB	HIGH	16.0	3.9-27.4	↑15+: 50% \| ↓5-: 15%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	10.0	2.6-17.9	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 29%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	HIGH	10.0	2.3-15.3	↑15+: 11% \| ↓5-: 42%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	14.0	4.8-24.9	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 11%
Quentin Johnston	WR	HIGH	10.0	2.9-23.1	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 20%
Rashid Shaheed	WR	HIGH	12.0	1.8-20.0	↑15+: 25% \| ↓5-: 27%
Hunter Henry	TE	HIGH	9.0	2.8-20.6	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 31%

IR

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust	Distribution
Rashee Rice	WR	MED	0.0	6.7-27.5	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 3%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Dak Prescott	QB	MED	18.0	7.4-30.1	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 3%
De'Von Achane	RB	MED	20.0	10.9-31.2	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 3%
James Cook III	RB	MED	16.0	6.2-27.6	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 5%
DeVonta Smith	WR	HIGH	12.0	4.5-24.6	↑15+: 36% \| ↓5-: 14%
Jaylen Waddle	WR	HIGH	14.0	3.1-22.2	↑15+: 37% \| ↓5-: 20%
Deebo Samuel	WR	HIGH	11.0	3.6-22.8	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 20%
Tyler Warren	TE	HIGH	12.0	3.3-18.1	↑15+: 21% \| ↓5-: 21%
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	8.0	1.0-18.1	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 31%
Cairo Santos	K	HIGH	8.0	3.8-16.1	↑15+: 14% \| ↓5-: 22%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Trevor Lawrence	QB	HIGH	18.8	8.3-32.5	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	HIGH	7.5	1.7-14.4	↑15+: 9% \| ↓5-: 36%
Chimere Dike	WR	HIGH	10.3	2.0-20.4	↑15+: 26% \| ↓5-: 33%
Dallas Goedert	TE	HIGH	11.9	3.7-23.2	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 21%
Taysom Hill	TE	HIGH	5.4	0.7-13.5	↑15+: 8% \| ↓5-: 73%
Buccaneers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	10.1	1.4-20.8	↑15+: 25% \| ↓5-: 33%
Chase McLaughlin	K	HIGH	9.2	2.7-16.9	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 25%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	17% @ 24.3	59% @ 14.2	25% @ 5.9	13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	27% @ 28.7	44% @ 18.4	29% @ 7.6	18.0
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	27% @ 20.1	43% @ 12.0	31% @ 5.2	12.1
Omarion Hampton	RB	25% @ 23.0	43% @ 12.1	32% @ 5.2	12.6
Jason Myers	K	25% @ 18.3	44% @ 11.9	31% @ 6.5	11.8
Juwan Johnson	TE	30% @ 14.9	45% @ 8.8	25% @ 3.7	9.4
Jameson Williams	WR	29% @ 24.4	44% @ 15.6	28% @ 5.4	15.3
Jacoby Brissett	QB	74% @ 21.4	2% @ 14.7	24% @ 6.0	17.5
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	36% @ 15.0	42% @ 8.4	22% @ 2.8	9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	6.3	7.0	MODERATE	55.0%	29.8%	15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	12.9	16.0	MODERATE	42.3%	35.3%	22.4%
Rashee Rice	WR	13.7	0.0	BUST	24.9%	45.3%	29.8%
Jason Myers	K	8.4	10.0	MODERATE	23.2%	55.1%	21.6%
Juwan Johnson	TE	10.2	11.0	MODERATE	18.8%	25.1%	56.0%
Tyjae Spears	RB	9.9	10.0	MODERATE	17.6%	44.8%	37.6%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	12.3	14.0	MODERATE	16.9%	61.6%	21.5%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	20.3	22.0	BOOM	13.5%	50.0%	36.4%
Sam Darnold	QB	15.9	16.0	MODERATE	13.3%	42.9%	43.8%
Bucky Irving	RB	14.7	15.0	MODERATE	12.9%	38.9%	48.2%
Jameson Williams	WR	13.4	12.0	MODERATE	12.6%	44.9%	42.6%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	8.9	10.0	MODERATE	11.9%	28.2%	59.9%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	21.8	24.0	BOOM	11.4%	66.0%	22.6%
Omarion Hampton	RB	14.9	18.0	BOOM	9.0%	33.3%	57.7%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-5	1861.3	1676.5	+184.8	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	10-5	1771.1	1765.4	+5.7	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	100.0%
3	Valued Customers ←	9-6	1822.8	1558.6	+264.2	0.0 vs 0.0	W5	100.0%
4	Ryan's Rowdy Team	8-7	1759.9	1725.0	+35.0	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	100.0%
5	Wookie of the Year	8-7	1705.9	1731.9	-26.0	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	0.0%
6	Meat Pistols	8-7	1515.0	1664.9	-149.9	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	0.0%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-8	1730.5	1674.7	+55.9	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	0.0%
8	Moms rules	7-8	1664.9	1778.5	-113.6	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	0.0%
9	Smooth Roosters	7-8	1664.4	1646.9	+17.5	0.0 vs 0.0	W3	0.0%
10	The Warsaw Pact	6-9	1653.5	1752.0	-98.5	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	0.0%
11	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-9	1584.0	1689.6	-105.6	0.0 vs 0.0	L5	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-11	1697.9	1767.4	-69.5	0.0 vs 0.0	L4	0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away Team		Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	@	Valued Customers
4th and pinches	@	Ryan's Rowdy Team
Wookie of the Year	@	Moms rules
Meat Pistols	@	The Warsaw Pact
Torta Pounders Football Club	@	Auto DraftKings
Smooth Roosters	@	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Week 17 Championship Research Analysis

Key News & Injury Updates

DK Metcalf (SEA) SUSPENDED - Out rest of regular season. MASSIVE boost for JSN target share!
Omarion Hampton "feeling the best he has felt" post-injury - Full confidence for ARI @ CIN
Jacoby Brissett support - Expert: "Don't pull the plug on Jacoby" after Week 16 dud vs ATL
Tyjae Spears listed as Week 17 RISER - Coming off strong Week 16
Todd Bowles wants more Rachaad White - Potential concern for Bucky Irving volume
Rashee Rice remains on IR - Concussion, not returning this season

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

Game	Total	Spread	Implications
ARI @ CIN	52.5	CIN -7.5	SMASH SPOT for Brissett/Hampton/MHJ - highest total
TB @ MIA	45.5	MIA -5.5	Solid for Irving, but TB may trail = less rushing
SEA @ CAR	42.5	SEA -7.0	JSN benefits from Metcalf suspension
DET @ MIN	43.5	DET -7.5	Jameson Williams vs #32 WR defense - AVOID
LAC @ HOU	39.5	HOU -1.5	Low total, risky D/ST spot

Defense Rankings Deep Dive

SMASH MATCHUPS: - Omarion Hampton @ CIN: #1 EASIEST RB matchup (32.01 PPG allowed) - Jacoby Brissett @ CIN: #5 easiest QB matchup (19.33 PPG allowed) - Juwan Johnson @ MIA: #2 easiest TE matchup (17.58 PPG allowed)

AVOID MATCHUPS: - Jameson Williams @ MIN: #32 TOUGHEST WR matchup (15.22 PPG) - START CONCERN - Chargers D/ST vs HOU: #32 toughest D/ST matchup

Game Stacking Correlation

TB @ MIA CORRELATION: - Our players: Bucky Irving (RB), Juwan Johnson (TE) - Opponent: De'Von Achane (RB), Jaylen Waddle (WR) - ~73 pts combined exposure in this game

Weather

ARI @ CIN: 63F, 18% rain, 10 mph winds - manageable
TB @ MIA: 78F, ideal conditions
SEA @ CAR: 57F, no concerns

Confidence Tiers

LOCKED-IN: Brissett, Hampton, JSN, Myers SOLID: Irving, MHJ, Johnson QUESTIONABLE: Jameson Williams (vs MIN), Chargers D/ST (vs HOU) BENCH: Darnold, McMillan, Reed, Rams D/ST

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

DK Metcalf suspension
Brock Bowers IR
Championship strategy

Positive Buzz: Omarion Hampton, Tyjae Spears

Negative Buzz: All Chiefs players, Michael Wilson

Mixed Buzz: Jacoby Brissett

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)

D/ST selection: Should we start Chargers D/ST (vs HOU), pick up Bears D/ST (vs SF) from waivers, or consider 49ers D/ST (@ CHI)? Championship week decision.

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Chargers D/ST offers the highest boom ceiling with XGB projecting 55.0% BOOM probability (highest on roster) and MC showing 35.9% boom rate. Houston ranks 31st in pass block win rate and has scored 20 or fewer points in 3 of last 5 games, while LAC defense has allowed ≤20 points in 7 of last 8 games and forced 8 turnovers in last 4 weeks.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST | ADD: 49ers D/ST

The 49ers defense faces a Bears offense that ranks among the worst in the NFL. The Chargers face nightmare scenario of CJ Stroud - when elite QBs get pressured they can explode. 49ers have highest rolling average at 11.1 pts with back-to-back double digit games.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Chargers D/ST offers best risk-adjusted EV. With MC EV of 9.6 (highest), XGB boom 55%, and only 15.2% bust risk, the Chargers provide 3.62x boom-to-bust ratio vs Rams 0.18x ratio. In close championship (+6 favored), cannot afford Rams 59.7% bust.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM-HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST | ADD: 49ers D/ST

Everyone chasing Chargers 55% XGB boom ignores XGB forward validation is only 37-44% accurate. 49ers have HIGHEST rolling avg (11.1) facing Bears offense with Caleb Williams who took 68 sacks as rookie. Texans on 7-game win streak - not an easy matchup.

Fact Check

✅ CEILING: "XGB 55% boom probability" CORRECT

✅ CEILING: "8 turnovers in 4 weeks" CORRECT

✅ CEILING: "≤20 pts allowed in 7/8 games" CORRECT

✅ FLOOR: "49ers 11.1 rolling avg highest" CORRECT

✅ SYNTHESIS: "MC EV 9.6 for Chargers" CORRECT

✅ SYNTHESIS: "Rams 59.7% bust probability" CORRECT

✅ CONTRARIAN: "XGB 37-44% forward accuracy" CORRECT

✅ CONTRARIAN: "Texans 7-game win streak" CORRECT

✅ CONTRARIAN: "Williams 68 sacks as rookie" CORRECT

✅ CONTRARIAN: "49ers 10-12 in consecutive weeks" CORRECT

❌ CEILING: "Houston 31st pass block" FALSE (actual: Likely false - 31 sacks allowed suggests better ranking)

❌ FLOOR: "Texans 41 sacks allowed" FALSE (actual: 31 sacks in 2025 (not 41))

❌ FLOOR: "Stroud 20:12 TD:INT ratio" FALSE (actual: 16 TDs, 6 INTs (16:6))

❌ SYNTHESIS: "3.67x boom-to-bust ratio" FALSE (actual: 3.62x ratio)

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Accept fact-check penalty for unverified Houston pass blocking claim. Should have used verified metric: Houston 31 sacks allowed. [Challenge ] 41 sacks and 20:12 TD:INT [Concede] CONTRARIAN correctly identified XGB calibration issues (44% accuracy). XGB 55% boom should not be treated as precise forecast.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: Rams D/ST | ADD:

[Ack] I RETRACT my false claims: Texans 41 sacks (actual: 31), Stroud 20:12 TD:INT (actual: 16:6). Used incorrect 2024 data. -0.30 penalty deserved. [Challenge ] Houston 31st pass block [Concede] Given my credibility damage and CONTRARIAN's perfect accuracy, I must pivot. Texans offense is significantly better than I portrayed.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Minor calculation error: 3.67x should be 3.62x. Accept -0.02 penalty. [Challenge ] XGB unreliability invalidates Chargers [Concede] FLOOR's -0.30 penalty shows 49ers case was built on false data.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM-HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST | ADD:

[Ack] Fact-check confirmed 100% accuracy on all my claims. Distancing from FLOOR's flawed analysis. [Challenge ] Over-reliance on XGB 55% [Concede] Chargers have verifiable defensive excellence. Texans 7-game streak bleeding D/ST points is real. Championship needs ceiling over floor.

Consensus: Majority

START Chargers D/ST, DROP Rams D/ST

0/4 agents agree

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

12.7

Our Team MAE

17 players

13.2

Opponent MAE

9 players

0.0

Free Agent MAE

3 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 11.6

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Error
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	21.8	24.0	-24.0
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	20.3	22.0	-22.0
Opponent	RB	De'Von Achane	0.0	20.0	-20.0
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	14.9	18.0	-18.0
Opponent	QB	Dak Prescott	0.0	18.0	-18.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	12.9	16.0	-16.0
Our Team	QB	Sam Darnold	15.9	16.0	-16.0
Opponent	RB	James Cook III	0.0	16.0	-16.0
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	14.7	15.0	-15.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	12.3	14.0	-14.0
Opponent	WR	Jaylen Waddle	0.0	14.0	-14.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.4	12.0	-12.0
Our Team	WR	Rashid Shaheed	9.4	12.0	-12.0
Opponent	WR	DeVonta Smith	0.0	12.0	-12.0
Opponent	TE	Tyler Warren	0.0	12.0	-12.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	10.2	11.0	-11.0
Opponent	WR	Deebo Samuel	0.0	11.0	-11.0
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	9.9	10.0	-10.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.4	10.0	-10.0
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	8.9	10.0	-10.0
Our Team	WR	Quentin Johnston	8.3	10.0	-10.0
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	10.7	9.0	-9.0
Opponent	D/ST	Broncos D/ST	0.0	8.0	-8.0
Opponent	K	Cairo Santos	0.0	8.0	-8.0
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	6.3	7.0	-7.0
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	13.7	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	WR	Quentin Johnston	0.0	-	+0.0
Free Agent	WR	Rashid Shaheed	0.0	-	+0.0
Free Agent	TE	Hunter Henry	0.0	-	+0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2

Our Team MAE

17 players

4.3

Opponent MAE

9 players

8.4

Free Agent MAE

6 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 6.1

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Free Agent	K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	0.0	-	16.0	+16.0
Free Agent	RB	Isiah Pacheco	0.0	-	13.5	+13.5
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.7	10.0	21.5	+11.5
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.4	15.0	3.8	-11.2
Free Agent	K	Eddy Pineiro	0.0	-	11.0	+11.0
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	18.8	21.0	10.6	-10.4
Opponent	TE	Trey McBride	16.8	-	6.7	-10.1
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	15.9	22.0	12.0	-10.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	14.2	12.0	2.4	-9.6
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	4.2	12.0	4.0	-8.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.1	9.0	16.9	+7.9
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	9.1	6.0	13.5	+7.5
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	14.0	7.1	-6.9
Opponent	RB	Rico Dowdle	15.2	-	8.3	-6.9
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.1	13.0	19.3	+6.3
Our Team	WR	Jayden Reed	11.2	13.0	7.1	-5.9
Opponent	WR	DK Metcalf	13.5	-	8.2	-5.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.8	5.0	0.0	-5.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Patriots D/ST	0.0	-	5.0	+5.0
Opponent	RB	Michael Carter	11.0	-	6.5	-4.5
Free Agent	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	0.0	-	4.0	+4.0
Opponent	QB	Baker Mayfield	16.6	-	12.7	-3.9
Opponent	D/ST	Jaguars D/ST	5.6	-	2.0	-3.6
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	13.2	13.0	16.5	+3.5
Opponent	K	Harrison Butker	8.0	-	11.0	+3.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	7.5	4.0	5.6	+1.6
Opponent	RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	23.8	-	22.8	-1.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Chiefs D/ST	0.0	-	1.0	+1.0
Opponent	WR	Michael Wilson	13.4	-	13.2	-0.2
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.9	23.6	23.6	+0.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.1	2.0	2.0	+0.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	5.7	4.0	4.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

$xgb_position_calibration.png$

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.