Valued Customers
LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | CIN | 20.3 | 22.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | HOU | 14.9 | 18.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | MIA | 14.7 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | CAR | 21.8 | 24.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | CIN | 12.9 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TEN | 10.2 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | MIN | 13.4 | 12.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | CAR | 8.4 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Chargers D/ST | HOU | 6.3 | 7.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Championship week optimization - maximize ceiling for Week 17
Provides TE insurance for Juwan Johnson. NE @ NYJ has 42.5 total. Henry is steady floor option if Johnson disappoints.
LAC WR1 with Herbert. Could be FLEX alternative to Jameson Williams if MIN matchup scares you.
With DK Metcalf suspended, Shaheed becomes SEA WR2. Elite matchup @ CAR. Stack with JSN?
⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, J.K. Dobbins, Garrett Wilson
See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 20.3 | 22.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 14.7 | 15.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 14.9 | 18.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR | 13.4 | 12.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.8 | 24.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 10.2 | 11.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.9 | 16.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.4 | 10.0 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.3 | 7.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 10.7 | 9.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco (bench) | RB | BE | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| Quentin Johnston (bench) | WR | BE | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| Rashid Shaheed (bench) | WR | BE | 9.4 | 12.0 |
| Sam Darnold (bench) | QB | BE | 15.9 | 16.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 12.3 | 14.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| Rashee Rice (bench) | WR | IR | 13.7 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | QB | 20.5 | 18.0 |
| De'Von Achane | RB | RB | 22.3 | 20.0 |
| James Cook III | RB | RB | 17.2 | 16.0 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | WR | 11.9 | 11.0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR | 13.2 | 14.0 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | TE | 12.1 | 12.0 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.4 | 12.0 |
| Cairo Santos | K | K | 8.4 | 8.0 |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 8.9 | 8.0 |
| Buccaneers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.7 | --- |
| Chase McLaughlin (bench) | K | BE | 8.0 | --- |
| Chimere Dike (bench) | WR | BE | 10.7 | --- |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench) | RB | BE | 10.7 | --- |
| Dallas Goedert (bench) | TE | BE | 10.8 | --- |
| Taysom Hill (bench) | TE | BE | 10.4 | --- |
| Trevor Lawrence (bench) | QB | BE | 19.4 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical). XGB: 19.4% boom (this week - unreliable). CIN is #5 easiest QB matchup (19.33 PPG). 52.5 game total is HIGHEST on slate. Expert consensus: 'Don't pull plug on Jacoby' after Week 16 dud. Mode: BOOM (high-scoring shootout expected). Projection: 22.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-28).
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM, 37% MODERATE (historical). XGB: N/A. CAR is favorable matchup. Mode: MODERATE (backup QB, not starting). Projection: 16.0 pts. BENCH.
MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 15.2 | - | 11.3 | -3.8 |
| 14 | ATL | 14.3 | - | 22.3 | +8.0 |
| 13 | MIN | 15.2 | - | 3.1 | -12.1 |
| 12 | TEN | 15.2 | - | 17.7 | +2.5 |
| 11 | LAR | 15.0 | - | 4.3 | -10.8 |
| 10 | ARI | 16.6 | - | 4.9 | -11.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 18.2 | - | 27.2 | +8.9 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 14.9 | - | 8.6 | -6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 15.3 | - | 20.0 | +4.7 |
| 5 | TB | 13.2 | - | 27.6 | +14.4 |
| 4 | ARI | 13.0 | - | 16.1 | +3.1 |
| 3 | NO | 14.1 | - | 16.7 | +2.7 |
| 2 | PIT | 12.8 | - | 15.8 | +3.0 |
| 1 | SF | 15.3 | - | 5.4 | -9.9 |
Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM, 59% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (this week). MIA is average RB matchup. 45.5 game total solid. Concern: Bowles wants 'more Rachaad White carries' per Reddit. Mode: MODERATE (volume concern caps upside). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-20).
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM, 61% MODERATE (historical). Listed as 'RISER' on Reddit Week 17. TEN offense limited. Mode: MODERATE (committee back with limited ceiling). Projection: 10.0 pts (MODERATE range 6-16). BENCH.
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 8.7% boom, 58.8% bust (XGB poorly calibrated - ignore). CIN is #1 EASIEST RB MATCHUP IN NFL (32.01 PPG). Hampton 'feeling best he has felt' post-injury per Reddit. 52.5 game total SMASH. Mode: BOOM (elite matchup overrides XGB). Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 16-30).
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 3% BOOM, 27% MODERATE, 70% BUST (historical - limited sample post-injury). XGB: 59.9% bust. PIT tough run defense. Mode: MODERATE (still getting reintegrated). Projection: 10.0 pts. BENCH.
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 24.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11.4% boom (model under-predicts booms). DK Metcalf SUSPENDED - JSN becomes clear WR1 with massive target share increase. SEA -7 favorites, should dominate CAR. Mode: BOOM (Metcalf absence is game-changer). Projection: 24.0 pts (within BOOM range 22-35).
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM, 37% MODERATE, 49% BUST (historical - rookie volatility). XGB: 16.9% boom. CIN #27 vs WR (tough). Behind MHJ for targets. Mode: MODERATE (upside limited as WR2 in tough matchup). Projection: 14.0 pts (mid MODERATE range 9-21). BENCH candidate.
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 42.1% boom (rare high boom signal). CIN #27 vs WR (difficult). BUT 52.5 game total creates volume. Heel healthy, full practice. Mode: MODERATE (tough WR matchup tempers boom). Projection: 16.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-20).
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: Rashee Rice (KC) remains in concussion protocol, did not practice Tuesday. "Long shot to clear protocol" per HC Andy Reid. Unlikely to play Week 17 vs DEN. Source: [Draft Sharks](https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy-football-news/81284/rashee-rice-unlikely-to-play-week-17). Mode: BUST (injured). Projection: 0.0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.3% boom, 43.4% moderate. MIN is #32 TOUGHEST WR matchup in NFL (15.22 PPG). DET still favored by 7.5 pts. Mode: MODERATE (elite defense caps ceiling but DET offense still productive). Projection: 12.0 pts (lower end MODERATE range 6-22).
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM, 43% MODERATE. DK Metcalf SUSPENDED - Shaheed becomes SEA WR2. Elite matchup @ CAR. Stack with JSN. Mode: MODERATE (upside play). Projection: 12.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 8.7 | - | 12.1 | +3.4 |
| 14 | ATL | 8.0 | - | 16.7 | +8.7 |
| 13 | MIN | 7.9 | - | 2.6 | -5.3 |
| 12 | TEN | 7.8 | - | 0.5 | -7.3 |
| 11 | LAR | 9.6 | - | 4.9 | -4.7 |
| 10 | ARI | 10.4 | - | 3.3 | -7.1 |
| 9 | WSH | 10.8 | - | 11.8 | +1.0 |
| 8 | BYE | 12.2 | - | 14.5 | +2.3 |
| 7 | HOU | 11.3 | - | 8.0 | -3.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 10.0 | - | 6.8 | -3.2 |
| 5 | TB | 9.3 | - | 21.4 | +12.1 |
| 4 | ARI | 9.7 | - | 9.2 | -0.5 |
| 3 | NO | 10.1 | - | 8.2 | -1.9 |
| 2 | PIT | 11.3 | - | 15.2 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 10.6 | - | 9.3 | -1.3 |
Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM, 53% MODERATE. LAC WR1 with Herbert. HOU average matchup. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | PHI | 8.7 | - | 2.8 | -5.9 |
| 13 | LV | 10.0 | - | 11.3 | +1.3 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 12.6 | - | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| 10 | PIT | 11.7 | - | 9.2 | -2.5 |
| 9 | TEN | 12.3 | - | 15.3 | +3.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 13.5 | - | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| 7 | IND | 14.9 | - | 11.0 | -3.9 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 17.5 | - | 6.9 | -10.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 13.8 | - | 23.8 | +10.0 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.7 | - | 14.9 | +2.2 |
| 2 | LV | 11.5 | - | 15.9 | +4.4 |
| 1 | KC | 6.4 | - | 24.9 | +18.5 |
Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM, 45% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17.9% boom, 56.6% bust (XGB over-predicts bust). MIA is #2 EASIEST TE MATCHUP (17.58 PPG). TB @ MIA 45.5 total. Mode: MODERATE (great matchup but TE variance high). Projection: 11.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-14).
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM, 43% MODERATE, 45% BUST. NE @ NYJ has 42.5 total. Solid TE2/insurance option. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | BUF | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | -7.5 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 14.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 14% BOOM, 37% MODERATE, 49% BUST (historical - rookie volatility). XGB: 16.9% boom. CIN #27 vs WR (tough). Behind MHJ for targets. Mode: MODERATE (upside limited as WR2 in tough matchup). Projection: 14.0 pts (mid MODERATE range 9-21). BENCH candidate.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%
Notes: Rashee Rice (KC) remains in concussion protocol, did not practice Tuesday. "Long shot to clear protocol" per HC Andy Reid. Unlikely to play Week 17 vs DEN. Source: [Draft Sharks](https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy-football-news/81284/rashee-rice-unlikely-to-play-week-17). Mode: BUST (injured). Projection: 0.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 10.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%
Notes: MC: 14% BOOM, 61% MODERATE (historical). Listed as 'RISER' on Reddit Week 17. TEN offense limited. Mode: MODERATE (committee back with limited ceiling). Projection: 10.0 pts (MODERATE range 6-16). BENCH.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 10.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 3% BOOM, 27% MODERATE, 70% BUST (historical - limited sample post-injury). XGB: 59.9% bust. PIT tough run defense. Mode: MODERATE (still getting reintegrated). Projection: 10.0 pts. BENCH.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%
Notes: MC: 25% BOOM, 37% MODERATE (historical). XGB: N/A. CAR is favorable matchup. Mode: MODERATE (backup QB, not starting). Projection: 16.0 pts. BENCH.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 15.2 | - | 11.3 | -3.8 |
| 14 | ATL | 14.3 | - | 22.3 | +8.0 |
| 13 | MIN | 15.2 | - | 3.1 | -12.1 |
| 12 | TEN | 15.2 | - | 17.7 | +2.5 |
| 11 | LAR | 15.0 | - | 4.3 | -10.8 |
| 10 | ARI | 16.6 | - | 4.9 | -11.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 18.2 | - | 27.2 | +8.9 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 14.9 | - | 8.6 | -6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 15.3 | - | 20.0 | +4.7 |
| 5 | TB | 13.2 | - | 27.6 | +14.4 |
| 4 | ARI | 13.0 | - | 16.1 | +3.1 |
| 3 | NO | 14.1 | - | 16.7 | +2.7 |
| 2 | PIT | 12.8 | - | 15.8 | +3.0 |
| 1 | SF | 15.3 | - | 5.4 | -9.9 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 9.0
Notes: MC: 11% BOOM, 43% MODERATE, 45% BUST. NE @ NYJ has 42.5 total. Solid TE2/insurance option. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | BUF | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | -7.5 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 12.0
Notes: MC: 30% BOOM, 43% MODERATE. DK Metcalf SUSPENDED - Shaheed becomes SEA WR2. Elite matchup @ CAR. Stack with JSN. Mode: MODERATE (upside play). Projection: 12.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 8.7 | - | 12.1 | +3.4 |
| 14 | ATL | 8.0 | - | 16.7 | +8.7 |
| 13 | MIN | 7.9 | - | 2.6 | -5.3 |
| 12 | TEN | 7.8 | - | 0.5 | -7.3 |
| 11 | LAR | 9.6 | - | 4.9 | -4.7 |
| 10 | ARI | 10.4 | - | 3.3 | -7.1 |
| 9 | WSH | 10.8 | - | 11.8 | +1.0 |
| 8 | BYE | 12.2 | - | 14.5 | +2.3 |
| 7 | HOU | 11.3 | - | 8.0 | -3.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 10.0 | - | 6.8 | -3.2 |
| 5 | TB | 9.3 | - | 21.4 | +12.1 |
| 4 | ARI | 9.7 | - | 9.2 | -0.5 |
| 3 | NO | 10.1 | - | 8.2 | -1.9 |
| 2 | PIT | 11.3 | - | 15.2 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 10.6 | - | 9.3 | -1.3 |
Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 10.0
Notes: MC: 18% BOOM, 53% MODERATE. LAC WR1 with Herbert. HOU average matchup. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | PHI | 8.7 | - | 2.8 | -5.9 |
| 13 | LV | 10.0 | - | 11.3 | +1.3 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 12.6 | - | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| 10 | PIT | 11.7 | - | 9.2 | -2.5 |
| 9 | TEN | 12.3 | - | 15.3 | +3.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 13.5 | - | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| 7 | IND | 14.9 | - | 11.0 | -3.9 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 17.5 | - | 6.9 | -10.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 13.8 | - | 23.8 | +10.0 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.7 | - | 14.9 | +2.2 |
| 2 | LV | 11.5 | - | 15.9 | +4.4 |
| 1 | KC | 6.4 | - | 24.9 | +18.5 |
James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability
Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability
Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability
Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III | RB | BUF | 16.1 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 57% | 31% | 12% | HIGH |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 18.6 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 51% | 34% | 15% | HIGH |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | 12.1 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 49% | 36% | 15% | HIGH |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 10.1 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 41% | 40% | 19% | HIGH |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | DEN | 9.1 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 29% | 45% | 26% | MEDIUM |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | WSH | 11.8 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 27% | 52% | 22% | MEDIUM |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 18.7 | 20.0 | MODERATE | 13% | 64% | 23% | LOW |
| Cairo Santos | K | CHI | 9.0 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 13% | 28% | 59% | LOW |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 13.1 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 9% | 48% | 43% | LOW |
James Cook III [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)
Dak Prescott [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)
Jaylen Waddle [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)
Tyler Warren [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)
Broncos D/ST [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)
Deebo Samuel [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)
De'Von Achane [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)
Cairo Santos [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)
DeVonta Smith [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)
Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
Championship week optimization - maximize ceiling for Week 17
Provides TE insurance for Juwan Johnson. NE @ NYJ has 42.5 total. Henry is steady floor option if Johnson disappoints.
Week 17: Championship insurance play
LAC WR1 with Herbert. Could be FLEX alternative to Jameson Williams if MIN matchup scares you.
Week 17: Boom potential in competitive game
With DK Metcalf suspended, Shaheed becomes SEA WR2. Elite matchup @ CAR. Stack with JSN?
Week 17: Metcalf suspension creates opportunity
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.2 | 47% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 0.0 | 34% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Jordan Love | QB | 16.5 | 27% | 21% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.0 | 27% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 8.4 | 20% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Matt Prater | K | 7.9 | 19% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.0 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Devin Neal | RB | 9.7 | 18% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Giants D/ST | D/ST | 6.7 | 18% | 46% | 0.0% | |
| Harrison Mevis | K | 9.0 | 16% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | D/ST | 8.3 | 15% | 55% | 0.0% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 11.9 | 15% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.8 | 15% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| 49ers D/ST | D/ST | 8.1 | 14% | 51% | 0.0% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 10.3 | 14% | 53% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 34% | 30% | |
| Jordan Love | 16.5 | BUST:26%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:21% | 27% | 21% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.7 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% | 11% | 54% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.2 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% | 47% | 20% | |
| Devin Neal | 9.7 | BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% | 18% | 45% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.6 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% | 12% | 57% | |
| Quinshon Judkins | 11.9 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 9% | 64% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.4 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 61% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 10.0 | BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% | 18% | 48% | |
| Quentin Johnston | 11.9 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18% | 15% | 39% | |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.8 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 15% | 48% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.3 | BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% | 14% | 53% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.7 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% | 9% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.0 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% | 27% | 24% | |
| Hunter Henry | 9.7 | BUST:45%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 62% | |
| Oronde Gadsden | 13.7 | BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% | 0% | 0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Prater | 7.9 | 19% | 54% | |
| Harrison Mevis | 9.0 | 16% | 48% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.6 | 9% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears D/ST | 8.4 | 20% | 30% | |
| Giants D/ST | 6.7 | 18% | 46% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.3 | 15% | 55% |
Win Probability
Floor: -38.1 pts | Median: +1.9 pts | Ceiling: +40.7 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 22.0 | 4.3-27.9 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 15.0 | 5.1-23.6 | ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 18.0 | 3.6-24.1 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 24.0 | 6.4-30.2 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 16.0 | 3.7-21.4 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 4.1-26.3 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 11.0 | 3.0-16.6 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.0 | 1.0-18.1 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 10.0 | 5.5-19.0 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 7% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | QB | HIGH | 16.0 | 3.9-27.4 | ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.6-17.9 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 29% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.3-15.3 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 42% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 4.8-24.9 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.9-23.1 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 1.8-20.0 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.8-20.6 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 31% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 0.0 | 6.7-27.5 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 3% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | MED | 18.0 | 7.4-30.1 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MED | 20.0 | 10.9-31.2 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| James Cook III | RB | MED | 16.0 | 6.2-27.6 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 4.5-24.6 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.1-22.2 | ↑15+: 37% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 3.6-22.8 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Tyler Warren | TE | HIGH | 12.0 | 3.3-18.1 | ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 1.0-18.1 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Cairo Santos | K | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.8-16.1 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 22% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | HIGH | 18.8 | 8.3-32.5 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 2% | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | HIGH | 7.5 | 1.7-14.4 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 36% | |
| Chimere Dike | WR | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.0-20.4 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | HIGH | 11.9 | 3.7-23.2 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Taysom Hill | TE | HIGH | 5.4 | 0.7-13.5 | ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 73% | |
| Buccaneers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.4-20.8 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Chase McLaughlin | K | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.7-16.9 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 25% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 17% @ 24.3 | 59% @ 14.2 | 25% @ 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 27% @ 28.7 | 44% @ 18.4 | 29% @ 7.6 | 18.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 27% @ 20.1 | 43% @ 12.0 | 31% @ 5.2 | 12.1 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 25% @ 23.0 | 43% @ 12.1 | 32% @ 5.2 | 12.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | 25% @ 18.3 | 44% @ 11.9 | 31% @ 6.5 | 11.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 30% @ 14.9 | 45% @ 8.8 | 25% @ 3.7 | 9.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 29% @ 24.4 | 44% @ 15.6 | 28% @ 5.4 | 15.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 74% @ 21.4 | 2% @ 14.7 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 36% @ 15.0 | 42% @ 8.4 | 22% @ 2.8 | 9.5 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 6.3 | 7.0 | MODERATE | 55.0% | 29.8% | 15.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 12.9 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 42.3% | 35.3% | 22.4% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 13.7 | 0.0 | BUST | 24.9% | 45.3% | 29.8% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.4 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 23.2% | 55.1% | 21.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 10.2 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 18.8% | 25.1% | 56.0% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 9.9 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 17.6% | 44.8% | 37.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 12.3 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 16.9% | 61.6% | 21.5% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 20.3 | 22.0 | BOOM | 13.5% | 50.0% | 36.4% |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 15.9 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 13.3% | 42.9% | 43.8% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 14.7 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 38.9% | 48.2% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.4 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 12.6% | 44.9% | 42.6% |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.9 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 11.9% | 28.2% | 59.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 21.8 | 24.0 | BOOM | 11.4% | 66.0% | 22.6% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 14.9 | 18.0 | BOOM | 9.0% | 33.3% | 57.7% |
Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1861.3 | 1676.5 | +184.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1771.1 | 1765.4 | +5.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1822.8 | 1558.6 | +264.2 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1759.9 | 1725.0 | +35.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1705.9 | 1731.9 | -26.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1515.0 | 1664.9 | -149.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1730.5 | 1674.7 | +55.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1664.9 | 1778.5 | -113.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1664.4 | 1646.9 | +17.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1653.5 | 1752.0 | -98.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1584.0 | 1689.6 | -105.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1697.9 | 1767.4 | -69.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Valued Customers |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| Meat Pistols | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
| Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
| Game | Total | Spread | Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ CIN | 52.5 | CIN -7.5 | SMASH SPOT for Brissett/Hampton/MHJ - highest total |
| TB @ MIA | 45.5 | MIA -5.5 | Solid for Irving, but TB may trail = less rushing |
| SEA @ CAR | 42.5 | SEA -7.0 | JSN benefits from Metcalf suspension |
| DET @ MIN | 43.5 | DET -7.5 | Jameson Williams vs #32 WR defense - AVOID |
| LAC @ HOU | 39.5 | HOU -1.5 | Low total, risky D/ST spot |
SMASH MATCHUPS: - Omarion Hampton @ CIN: #1 EASIEST RB matchup (32.01 PPG allowed) - Jacoby Brissett @ CIN: #5 easiest QB matchup (19.33 PPG allowed) - Juwan Johnson @ MIA: #2 easiest TE matchup (17.58 PPG allowed)
AVOID MATCHUPS: - Jameson Williams @ MIN: #32 TOUGHEST WR matchup (15.22 PPG) - START CONCERN - Chargers D/ST vs HOU: #32 toughest D/ST matchup
TB @ MIA CORRELATION: - Our players: Bucky Irving (RB), Juwan Johnson (TE) - Opponent: De'Von Achane (RB), Jaylen Waddle (WR) - ~73 pts combined exposure in this game
LOCKED-IN: Brissett, Hampton, JSN, Myers SOLID: Irving, MHJ, Johnson QUESTIONABLE: Jameson Williams (vs MIN), Chargers D/ST (vs HOU) BENCH: Darnold, McMillan, Reed, Rams D/ST
Positive Buzz: Omarion Hampton, Tyjae Spears
Negative Buzz: All Chiefs players, Michael Wilson
Mixed Buzz: Jacoby Brissett
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.8 | 24.0 | 0.0 | -24.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 20.3 | 22.0 | 0.0 | -22.0 |
| Opponent | RB | De'Von Achane | 0.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | -20.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 14.9 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Dak Prescott | 0.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 12.9 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Sam Darnold | 15.9 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Opponent | RB | James Cook III | 0.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 14.7 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 12.3 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Jaylen Waddle | 0.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.4 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashid Shaheed | 9.4 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | WR | DeVonta Smith | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Tyler Warren | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 10.2 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Deebo Samuel | 0.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 9.9 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.4 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 8.9 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Quentin Johnston | 8.3 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.7 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Broncos D/ST | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Opponent | K | Cairo Santos | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 6.3 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 13.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | WR | Quentin Johnston | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | WR | Rashid Shaheed | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | TE | Hunter Henry | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 0.0 | - | 16.0 | +16.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 0.0 | - | 13.5 | +13.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 10.0 | 21.5 | +11.5 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.4 | 15.0 | 3.8 | -11.2 |
| Free Agent | K | Eddy Pineiro | 0.0 | - | 11.0 | +11.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 21.0 | 10.6 | -10.4 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 6.7 | -10.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.9 | 22.0 | 12.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 12.0 | 2.4 | -9.6 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 9.0 | 16.9 | +7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.1 | 6.0 | 13.5 | +7.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.0 | 7.1 | -6.9 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 8.3 | -6.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 13.0 | 19.3 | +6.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.1 | -5.9 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 8.2 | -5.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Patriots D/ST | 0.0 | - | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Michael Carter | 11.0 | - | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 12.7 | -3.9 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.6 | - | 2.0 | -3.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 13.0 | 16.5 | +3.5 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 |
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.8 | - | 22.8 | -1.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chiefs D/ST | 0.0 | - | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | - | 13.2 | -0.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.9 | 23.6 | 23.6 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.